Secretariat of the Council for Budget Responsibility (SoCBR) estimates the 2024 General Government Budget (GGB) deficit at 5.4 % of GDP
- SoCBR has decreased the estimated level of GGB deficit in 2024. The positive difference compared to the May forecast amounts to EUR 312 million. Month-to-month decrease of the GG deficit level is caused by the increase of expected corporate tax revenue (CIT, special levy on banks) due to observed higher profitability of companies.
- According to the SoCBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.4 % of GDP (EUR 7 078 million), based on current information and under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures.
- Positive deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.6 % of GDP, which means that the risk of the public deficit level rising above the government objective is low. However, contrary to budgeted year-on-year decrease in the deficit level by 0.5 p.p. of GDP, SoCBR estimates an increase in the GG deficit level relative to year 2023 by 0.5 p.p. of GDP, the increase amounts to EUR 1.1 billion.
- Compared to the government’s estimate published in the Stability Programme of the Slovak Republic for 2024-2027, the level of the SoCBR deficit forecast is lower by 0.5 % of GDP.
- The financial performance of other GG entities (ŽSR, ZSSK, public transport companies) represents the most significant positive impact on the GG balance compared to the budget mainly due to savings in energy expenditures. Based on developments observed in previous years, SoCBR does not expect an increase of expenditures to the budgeted levels.
- On the other hand, we expect the most significant negative impact on the GG balance in government measures to compensate high energy prices, since the budget relied on financing from EU funds, which entered the deficit in 2023. The next negative risk is in healthcare due to observed higher growth of healthcare expenses and an increase in hospital liabilities.