Secretariat of the Council for Budget Responsibility (SoCBR) estimates the 2024 General Government Budget (GGB) deficit at 5.8 % of GDP
- SoCBR has slightly decreased the estimated level of GGB deficit in 2024. The positive difference compared to the October forecast amounts to EUR 39 million. Month-to-month slight decrease of the GG deficit level is mainly due to lower expected EU contribution, the most negative difference is caused by an increase of the Social Insurance Agency expenditures on old-age pensions.
- According to the SoCBR, the deficit can reach the level of 5.8 % of GDP (EUR 7 578 million), based on current information and under the assumption that the government does not take additional measures.
- Positive deviation from the approved budget amounts to 0.2 % of GDP, which means that the risk of the public deficit level rising above the government objective is low. However, contrary to the declared year-on-year decrease in the deficit level by 0.5 p.p. of GDP, SoCBR estimates an increase in the GG deficit level relative to year 2023 by 0.6 p.p. of GDP, the increase amounts to EUR 1.2 billion.
- Compared to the government’s estimate published in the Draft Budgetary Plan for 2025-2027, the level of the SoCBR deficit forecast is almost the same.
- The estimated slower spending of state budget current expenditures represents the most significant positive impact on the GG balance compared to the budget. Based on developments observed in previous years, SoCBR does not expect an increase of expenditures to the budgeted levels.
- On the other hand, we expect the most significant negative impact on the GG balance in healthcare due to higher growth of healthcare expenses and worsened financial performance of hospitals. The next negative risk we estimate in lower tax income due to lower expected income from VAT.